Quantum-gravity phenomenology 2022–2026: the distinguishing-prediction hunt, audited

Status: Iteration-6 research note (track R5-qg-phenomenology). Catalogue of every live observable-signature program, classified against the watch-list taxonomy (gate / core / target / wager). Web-verified June 2026. Last updated: 2026-06-10

This note feeds ../EXPERIMENT_WATCHLIST.md. Its governing question is the one ../CONCLUSION.md §7 hands to experiment: does any 2022–2026 proposal give the central wager a distinguishing test? Short answer: no — but one new channel (GQuEST) comes close enough that the watch-list caveat needs a refinement, and the program's gate may close from the classical side before it closes from the quantum side.

1. Verlinde–Zurek geontropic fluctuations and GQuEST — the nearest-to-wager channel

What the theory claims

Verlinde and Zurek propose that the quantum-gravitational vacuum induces fluctuations in the size of a causal diamond that are Planck-enhanced: $\\langle\\delta L^2\\rangle \\sim \\ell_p L$ rather than $\\ell_p^2$ (Verlinde–Zurek, Phys. Lett. B 2021, arXiv:1902.08207). The root relation is the modular-fluctuation area law $\\langle\\Delta K^2\\rangle = \\langle K\\rangle = \\frac{A(\\Sigma)}{4G_N},$ derived in holographic settings and reproduced from gravitational shockwaves sourced by vacuum fluctuations (Verlinde–Zurek, PRD 106, 106011 (2022), arXiv:2208.01059). [INFERENCE — established within AdS/CFT-adjacent setups; not derived for our universe.] Aalsma–Bak (PRD 112, 026017 (2025), arXiv:2503.04886) show the VZ scaling arises whenever an effective spherically-symmetric perturbation is quantized, while conceding that whether QG vacua actually contain such modes "remains unresolved." CONTESTED

The assumptions chain (each link tagged)

$\\langle\\Delta K^2\\rangle=\\langle K\\rangle$ for the causal diamond INFERENCE, holographic provenance.
Modular-energy fluctuation $\\Rightarrow$ metric/horizon fluctuation — this step installs $\\eta = 1/4G$ by hand (it uses $\\langle K\\rangle = A/4G_N$ to convert algebra into geometry) ESTABLISHED that the step is an input; see §2.
The pixellon EFT (a thermal, Bose–Einstein-occupied scalar breathing mode) converts the conjecture into an interferometer power spectral density (Li–Lee–Chen–Zurek, arXiv:2209.07543). The GQuEST design paper itself states a derivation of the pixellon "from a full theory… is still underway." ESTABLISHED as an admission
One free amplitude $\\alpha=\\mathcal O(1)$ , not computed; and an IR-cutoff choice (at $c/L$ or not) that moves bounds by a factor ~30. OPEN

Existing bounds and the experiment

[ESTABLISHED, from the GQuEST design paper, PRX 15, 011034 (2025), arXiv:2404.07524:]

LIGO: $\\alpha\\lesssim 3$ (with IR cutoff), $\\alpha\\lesssim 0.1$ (without).
Holometer: $\\alpha\\lesssim 0.7$ (with), $\\alpha\\lesssim 0.6$ (without).
GQuEST: 5 m arms, 10 kW on the beamsplitter, 1550 nm, photon-counting readout not subject to the interferometric standard quantum limit; projected $5\\sigma$ test of $\\alpha=1$ in $\\mathcal O(10^5)\\,$ s (~100× faster than homodyne).
Status: DOE-funded (July 2022, 5-yr); preliminary instrument being built at Caltech (Holometer vacuum hardware installed Feb 2024); no science data as of mid-2026.
Sibling: Cardiff QUEST published first broadband limits on correlated stochastic length fluctuations, 13–80 MHz (PRL, Sept 2025; arXiv:2410.09175). ESTABLISHED

Published criticism

The $\\sqrt{\\ell_p L}$ scaling is CONTESTED: it is supported only by calculations sharing the holographic/thermodynamic input set, the pixellon is not UV-derived (conceded), $\\alpha$ is unknown, and the IR-cutoff ambiguity is unresolved. Hossenfelder's commentary additionally flags Lorentz-invariance worries about radially-uncorrelated fluctuation ansätze [commentary, not a paper]. No refereed refutation of the scaling was verified this session; equally, no first-principles derivation exists. A null at $\\alpha\\sim1$ would kill the natural normalization, not the framework. INFERENCE

2. What GQuEST tests in the taxonomy — and why it is still not the wager

This is the track's central analysis. INFERENCE, high

The wager is an ontological-priority claim: causal/algebraic/entanglement structure precedes metric geometry.
VZ phenomenology is a quantitative claim about vacuum metric fluctuations computed on a fixed background causal diamond: the diamond, horizon, and area are presupposed.
The only step that turns modular structure into geometry — link 2 above — inputs $\\eta=1/4G$ . This is the fourth known instance of the root obstruction recorded in ../HYPOTHESES.md (HYP-dS-CARDINALITY-R1: in every known route, η is an input, not an output); the VZ chain does not escape it, it instantiates it.
Hence: a null constrains $(\\alpha,$ cutoff $)$ only; a positive would establish that modular-energy fluctuations gravitate with the assumed η — the first laboratory phenomenon whose only available derivations route through modular-Hamiltonian fluctuations, and a genuine earthquake for quantum gravity — but it would not discriminate "structure precedes geometry" from "geometry encodes structure." Encode vs generate (../OPEN_PROBLEMS.md OP-46) is untouched in either branch.

Taxonomy ruling: GQuEST/QUEST occupies a new, fourth watch-list category — program-adjacent phenomenology: it tests a SPECULATIVE dynamical conjecture inspired by Program A's vocabulary, and decides neither gate, nor core, nor target, nor wager. The watch-list's "none tests the wager" caveat survives, but should be refined: no experiment decides the wager; exactly one funded experiment probes a conjecture inspired by it.

3. Oppenheim classical-quantum (CQ) gravity — the gate, attacked from the classical side

The decoherence–diffusion trade-off is a theorem for CPTP hybrid dynamics: preserving quantum coherence forces a minimum diffusion $D_2$ of the classical metric sector (Oppenheim–Sparaciari–Šoda–Weller-Davies, Nat. Commun. 2023, DOI 10.1038/s41467-023-43348-2, arXiv:2203.01982). ESTABLISHED within the CQ framework

Squeeze status [ESTABLISHED — verified from the full text of Janse et al., Phys. Rev. Research 6, 033076 (2024), arXiv:2403.08912]:

CQ model	Status mid-2026
Ultra-local continuous	Ruled out in the original paper
Ultra-local discrete	Experimental FOM (Asenbaum et al. atom interferometry) improves on the original Cavendish bound by 25 orders of magnitude and drops below this model's trade-off lower bound — excluded modulo stated caveats
Non-local continuous	Survives; experimental bound ~1 order of magnitude away

Overall the Leiden review lowers the $D_2$ upper bound by ≥15 orders of magnitude across test masses from single atoms to kilograms (torsion balances, LISA Pathfinder, levitated magnets/SQUID, LIGO mirrors, atom interferometry). Authors' caveats: the atom-interferometry bound is a phase (relative-acceleration) measurement, not a displacement one; and the same experiment class sets the decoherence-side lower bound, raising a both-bounds-from-one-experiment worry. ESTABLISHED as stated caveats

Theory-side pressure CONTESTED: Hotta–Murk–Terno (arXiv:2506.15291, v5 2026) claim every completely-positive CQ dynamics embeds into a unitary quantum theory on an enlarged Hilbert space ("CQ gravity is quantum gravity in disguise"), plus a closed CP classical-quantum example violating angular-momentum conservation. If the embedding stands, CQ is an effective sector, not an ontological alternative — though the diffusion phenomenology stays falsifiable regardless.

Taxonomy: the CQ squeeze tests the program's gate from the classical side. Complete falsification would close "is gravity non-classical?" by eliminating the classical alternative — possibly years before any BMV witness. Conversely, a detection of anomalous diffusion would re-open the gate dramatically. Neither branch touches the wager. INFERENCE

4. Danielson–Satishchandran–Wald horizon decoherence — derived, deflated, not a channel

What is actually derived ESTABLISHED as theory results: a body held in spatial superposition near a Killing horizon (black hole, Rindler, de Sitter cosmological) emits soft gravitons/photons through the horizon, which harvests which-path information and decoheres any stationary superposition in finite time; distinct from and larger than Unruh-radiation decoherence; $d\\ge4$ (DSW, arXiv:2205.06279; PRD 108, 025007 (2023), arXiv:2301.00026). Approximation: QFT in curved spacetime + perturbative soft radiation; no UV input. The 2025 local reformulation derives the same effect from the lab-local two-point function of ultra-low-frequency Hawking quanta — and shows a static star does not decohere this way (PRD 111, 025014 (2025), arXiv:2407.02567).

Deflation ESTABLISHED as a published counter-reading: Biggs–Maldacena (arXiv:2405.02227) show the same qualitative effect for ordinary matter at finite temperature in a single effective theory — the black hole acts as a standard quantum system at $T_H$ . This undercuts any temptation to enlist DSW as evidence that horizons/causal structure are ontologically special; the exchange over exactly which degrees of freedom a body needs to mimic a black hole is live. CONTESTED at the margins

Follow-ups 2024–26: GW memory decoheres superpositions (Linton–Tiwari, CQG 42, 205005 (2025), arXiv:2501.18111); Reissner–Nordström and near-extremal extensions exist [arXiv listings; not independently verified this session].

Observable consequence: none practical. Rates are negligible for laboratory parameters; the dS version implies a fundamental decoherence floor in a $\\Lambda>0$ universe — conceptually adjacent to Program A's target, unmeasurable in practice. Taxonomy: no watch-list row. A theory watch-item only. INFERENCE

5. Graviton noise and "detecting the graviton" — the gate's radiative sector, with its own underdetermination gap

Parikh–Wilczek–Zahariade (PRD 104, 046021 (2021), arXiv:2010.08208; IJMPD 29, 2042001 (2020)): quantization-induced arm-length noise is state-dependent; for coherent (classical-like) states it is hopelessly small; squeezed/thermal/relic states enhance it. ESTABLISHED
Hertzberg–Litterer (JCAP 03 (2023) 009, arXiv:2112.12159): first LIGO-Virgo bound on the GW quantum state's squeezing, $\\zeta < 41$ — methodologically real, numerically toothless. ESTABLISHED
Tobar–Manikandan–Beitel–Pikovski (Nat. Commun. 15, 7229 (2024), arXiv:2308.15440): stimulated single-graviton absorption resolvable in massive quantum acoustic resonators via quantum-jump sensing. ESTABLISHED as published claim
The caveat that controls the channel — Carney–Domcke–Rodd (PRD 109, 044009 (2024), arXiv:2308.12988): the same click signal is reproducible by a classical GW driving a quantum detector (photoelectric-effect logic); demonstrating radiation quantization needs correlation measurements far beyond click-counting. See also Carney, Comments on graviton detection (arXiv:2408.00094). ESTABLISHED

Taxonomy: gate (radiative sector), but conditionally — the channel has the same logical shape as OP-40's mediation gap: the natural observable (clicks / noise) underdetermines quantum-vs-classical without an extra premise or a much harder measurement. INFERENCE, high Structural parallel worth recording in ../OPEN_PROBLEMS.md OP-40.

6. GIE/BMV updates and proposed watch-list edits

Corrections and updates to 2026-06-08-tabletop-quantum-gravity.md:

arXiv:2604.16276 is now verified: Xue–Tang–Yang–Han–Kan–Liu, "Aziz and Howl's Gravity-Induced Entanglement Channel is Essentially Classical Mechanics" (submitted 2026-04-17) — the channel reduces to semiclassical wavepacket motion; effect "negligibly small" for Gaussian wavepackets. The " $\\sim10^{-13}d$ " displacement figure stays unverified (not in the abstract). Aziz–Howl is now attacked from three independent directions (2511.07348; 2512.13675; 2604.16276): CONTESTED → trending dead.
The m³ exponent in HYP-GIE-DISCRIM remains unverified after a second sweep — no accessible primary source states it.
New for HYP-GIE-DISCRIM: Braccini–Serafini–Bose (arXiv:2602.19306, Feb 2026) claim the leading-order gravitational entangling phase between qubits in coupled Stern–Gerlach interferometers is mass-independent (unitary and open dynamics; higher orders reintroduce mass dependence). SPECULATIVE — fresh preprint If it survives referee scrutiny, any mass-scaling discriminator is protocol-dependent and HYP-GIE-DISCRIM must be scoped per-protocol.
Enabling tech: electron-Bragg diffraction of levitated nanoparticles gives ~1000× the momentum splitting of two-photon gratings (Nimmrichter–Rätzel–Bicket–Seifner–Haslinger, PRL 2026, arXiv:2502.13821); diamagnetic microchip traps for entanglement experiments (arXiv:2411.02325 [listing only]). The "~6–10 orders below required mass/coherence" status stands.

Proposed new EXPERIMENT_WATCHLIST rows (table-ready):

Channel	What it decides	Current status	Decision window	What a result changes
VZ geontropic fluctuations (GQuEST, QUEST)	Program-adjacent phenomenology (new category): a SPECULATIVE modular-fluctuation conjecture inspired by Program A — not gate/core/target/wager	LIGO/Holometer: $\\alpha\\lesssim3$ / $0.7$ (IR cutoff), $0.1$ / $0.6$ (none); GQuEST under construction, $5\\sigma$ at $\\alpha=1$ in $\\mathcal O(10^5)$ s once running; QUEST first 13–80 MHz limits (PRL 2025)	2–5 yr	Positive: modular fluctuations gravitate (with assumed η) — earthquake, but encode-vs-generate and the wager untouched. Null: kills the natural pixellon normalization only.
CQ spacetime diffusion (gate, classical side)	Program's gate by elimination: can gravity stay classical?	Ultralocal-continuous dead; ultralocal-discrete below experimental upper bound (caveats); non-local continuous alive by ~1 order (Janse et al. PRR 2024)	0–10 yr	Full CQ falsification closes the gate without BMV; an anomalous-diffusion detection re-opens everything. Embedding critique (Hotta–Murk–Terno) contests CQ's fundamentality either way.
Graviton-sector quantization (radiative)	Gate, radiative sector — conditionally (clicks ≠ quantization, Carney–Domcke–Rodd)	$\\zeta<41$ squeezing bound (LIGO-Virgo); single-graviton-jump proposals published; no detection	5–20 yr	A click consistent with, not probative of, quantization; correlation-level tests needed for the gate proper.

Proposed dead-ends subsection: Hogan holographic noise (Holometer null 2015 + Lorentz-invariance critique — does not transfer to VZ, whose correlation structure differs); VZ-no-IR-cutoff with $\\alpha\\gtrsim0.1$ (LIGO-excluded); Aziz–Howl channel (contested, trending dead).

7. Verdict for this track

The 2022–2026 phenomenology landscape does not produce a distinguishing test of the central wager — the standing caveat in ../EXPERIMENT_WATCHLIST.md survives its strongest challenge to date. INFERENCE, high What it does produce: (i) a fourth taxonomy category with one funded occupant (GQuEST) whose positive result would for the first time make modular structure laboratory-relevant — while re-importing η and therefore leaving encode-vs-generate intact; (ii) a realistic prospect that the gate closes from the classical side via the CQ diffusion squeeze; (iii) a sharpened understanding that even the "count gravitons" channel carries an underdetermination gap isomorphic to OP-40's mediation gap. Nothing touches the two analytic hedges of ../CONCLUSION.md §5–6.

References

Verified this session (abstract page or authoritative source fetched/located):

Vermeulen et al., Photon-Counting Interferometry to Detect Geontropic Space-Time Fluctuations with GQuEST, PRX 15, 011034 (2025). arXiv:2404.07524.
Verlinde & Zurek, Observational Signatures of Quantum Gravity in Interferometers, Phys. Lett. B (2021). arXiv:1902.08207.
Verlinde & Zurek, Modular Fluctuations from Shockwave Geometries, PRD 106, 106011 (2022). arXiv:2208.01059.
Li, Lee, Chen, Zurek, Interferometer Response to Geontropic Fluctuations. arXiv:2209.07543.
Aalsma & Bak, Modular Fluctuations in Cosmology, PRD 112, 026017 (2025). arXiv:2503.04886.
QUEST collab., Broadband Limits on Stochastic Length Fluctuations from a Pair of Table-Top Interferometers, PRL (2025). arXiv:2410.09175.
Oppenheim, Sparaciari, Šoda, Weller-Davies, Gravitationally induced decoherence vs space-time diffusion, Nat. Commun. (2023), DOI 10.1038/s41467-023-43348-2. arXiv:2203.01982.
Oppenheim, A Postquantum Theory of Classical Gravity?, PRX 13, 041040 (2023). arXiv:1811.03116.
Janse, Uitenbroek, van Everdingen, Plugge, Hensen, Oosterkamp, Current experimental upper bounds on spacetime diffusion, Phys. Rev. Research 6, 033076 (2024). arXiv:2403.08912 (full text extracted).
Hotta, Murk, Terno, Classical-quantum gravity as quantum gravity in disguise. arXiv:2506.15291.
Danielson, Satishchandran, Wald, Black Holes Decohere Quantum Superpositions (2022). arXiv:2205.06279.
Danielson, Satishchandran, Wald, Killing Horizons Decohere Quantum Superpositions, PRD 108, 025007 (2023). arXiv:2301.00026.
Danielson, Satishchandran, Wald, Local Description of Decoherence…, PRD 111, 025014 (2025). arXiv:2407.02567.
Biggs & Maldacena, Comparing the decoherence effects due to black holes versus ordinary matter (2024). arXiv:2405.02227.
Linton & Tiwari, Gravitational waves decohere quantum superpositions, CQG 42, 205005 (2025). arXiv:2501.18111.
Parikh, Wilczek, Zahariade, Signatures of the Quantization of Gravity at Gravitational Wave Detectors, PRD 104, 046021 (2021). arXiv:2010.08208.
Hertzberg & Litterer, Bound on Quantum Fluctuations in Gravitational Waves from LIGO-Virgo, JCAP 03 (2023) 009. arXiv:2112.12159.
Tobar, Manikandan, Beitel, Pikovski, Detecting single gravitons with quantum sensing, Nat. Commun. 15, 7229 (2024). arXiv:2308.15440.
Carney, Domcke, Rodd, Graviton detection and the quantization of gravity, PRD 109, 044009 (2024). arXiv:2308.12988.
Carney, Comments on graviton detection (2024). arXiv:2408.00094.
Xue, Tang, Yang, Han, Kan, Liu, Aziz and Howl's Gravity-Induced Entanglement Channel is Essentially Classical Mechanics (2026). arXiv:2604.16276.
Braccini, Serafini, Bose, Mass-Independent Gravitationally Induced Entanglement (2026). arXiv:2602.19306.
Nimmrichter, Rätzel, Bicket, Seifner, Haslinger, Electron-Enabled Nanoparticle Diffraction, PRL (2026). arXiv:2502.13821.
Aziz & Howl, Classical theories of gravity produce entanglement, Nature 646, 813 (2025).
Fermilab news, Holometer rules out first theory of space-time correlations (Dec 2015).
Hossenfelder, Backreaction blog (2019) [expert commentary, not a paper].

Listed but not independently verified this session (search-listing only — keep flagged):

arXiv:2512.13675, Matter-Mediated Entanglement in Classical Gravity… unverified authors
arXiv:2411.02325, Diamagnetic microchip traps for levitated nanoparticle entanglement experiments unverified
arXiv:2505.07480 (near-extremal decoherence); arXiv:2411.04734 / PRD 111, 024040 (Reissner–Nordström decoherence) unverified
arXiv:2503.19774; arXiv:2511.07348; arXiv:2511.19242; arXiv:2511.20717 (Aziz–Howl rebuttals — already cited in the tabletop note) [re-listed, not re-verified]

Referee verdict

Adversarial referee, track R5-qg-phenomenology, iteration 6 (2026-06-10). Default stance: refute. Citation audit: 28 sources spot-checked by direct fetch this session, including full-text reads of the two number-bearing papers (GQuEST arXiv:2404.07524; Janse et al. arXiv:2403.08912) and direct fetches of all five 2025–26 preprints. Zero fabricated or misattributed-beyond-repair citations — the cleanest track audited to date. One major correction (F7), five minors, two clean.

R5-F1 (VZ/GQuEST chain) — KEEP, severity minor. Every link re-verified: the ⟨ΔK²⟩=⟨K⟩=A/4G_N area law (2208.01059, verbatim), the GQuEST design numbers (5 m / 10 kW / 1550 nm / O(10⁵) s at 5σ for α=1, read from the full HTML), the α bounds (LIGO ≲3 with IR cutoff, ≲0.1 without; Holometer ≲0.7/0.6), the verbatim 'pixellon derivation from a UV-complete theory is still underway' admission, the Aalsma–Bak open-question concession (2503.04886, verbatim), and the project-status facts (DOE July 2022; Holometer hardware at Caltech Feb 2024). The QUEST PRL (135, 101402) — flagged by the finder as its weakest verification — was upgraded by direct fetch. Repairs: describe the pixellon occupation as 'thermal density matrix' (the abstract's term), and present QUEST's published framing (stochastic length fluctuations / GW background) with the geontropic constraint as an application. CONTESTED tag on the √(ℓ_pL) scaling: correctly placed.

R5-F2 (taxonomy ruling: program-adjacent, η re-imported) — KEEP, severity minor. This was checked hardest against the wiki's own closures, since it leans on HYP-dS-CARDINALITY-R1. It does not contradict the closure — it extends it, and must say so: R1 covers Einstein-from-entanglement derivation routes; the VZ chain is a phenomenological inference chain, so it is an extension of the η-as-input pattern, not a fourth member of the original class. Second repair: 'a positive would establish that modular fluctuations gravitate with the assumed η' overclaims — a positive establishes a strain signal matching the predicted PSD; the modular attribution is an additional inference requiring exclusion of alternatives. The core conclusion survives both repairs and is sound: the chain assumes the geometric translation, so neither outcome discriminates 'precedes' from 'encodes'. The proposed fourth watchlist category (program-adjacent phenomenology) is well-defined: approved.

R5-F3 (CQ spacetime-diffusion squeeze) — KEEP, severity minor. Full-text verification of Janse et al. confirms every number: ultra-local continuous ruled out in the original paper; 25-orders atom-interferometry improvement dropping below the ultralocal-discrete lower bound (modulo the authors' own caveats, faithfully reproduced); non-local continuous surviving by one order. Two scope repairs: the trade-off theorem holds within the CQ master-equation framework; and 'gate closes by elimination' must be scoped — the three models are representative kernels, not the whole CQ class, and nonlocal classical mediators (Hall–Reginatto-type) remain outside this channel's reach. With those qualifiers, this is the track's most consequential watchlist update.

R5-F4 (Hotta–Murk–Terno embedding) — KEEP, severity none. Title, authors, dates (v1 2025-06-18, v5 2026-04-12), and both claims (enlarged-Hilbert-space embedding; rotationally-invariant CP system violating angular-momentum conservation) confirmed verbatim. CONTESTED tag correct; the observation that the diffusion bounds are ontology-robust slightly strengthens F3. Phrase 'no published concession found as of 2026-06' rather than 'has not conceded'.

R5-F5 (DSW horizon decoherence + Biggs–Maldacena deflation) — KEEP, severity minor. All five citations verified; 'distinct from — and larger than — Unruh radiation' and the static-star non-decoherence are verbatim. The Biggs–Maldacena deflation ('same qualitative effect for ordinary matter at finite temperature') is confirmed and is exactly the pre-emption the wiki needs against future 'horizon-first' enlistment of DSW. Repairs: the d≥4 qualifier is unverified at abstract level (flag); keep the deflation adjacent to any 'fundamental dS decoherence floor' sentence. The no-watchlist-row ruling is correct.

R5-F6 (graviton-sector: PWZ noise, ζ<41, Tobar, Carney–Domcke–Rodd) — KEEP, severity none. All four sources verified; ζ<41 verbatim; CDR is in fact stronger than the paraphrase — the required correlation measurements are 'likely impossible to perform in practice', which the watchlist row should quote rather than soften. The structural parallel to OP-40's mediation underdetermination is apt.

R5-F7 (GIE updates; 2604.16276 correction) — KEEP, severity MAJOR. The headline corrections are verified and enter: arXiv:2604.16276 is real (Xue–Tang–Yang–Han–Kan–Liu, 2026-04-17), the 10⁻¹³d figure is absent from its abstract (keep unverified), and the Braccini–Serafini–Bose mass-independence claim (2602.19306) is confirmed verbatim. But the finding introduces its own attribution error while fixing one: 'three independent directions' against Aziz–Howl is false. Direct fetch shows 2512.13675 and 2604.16276 share the same six authors, and 2511.07348 is by Marletto–Oppenheim–Vedral–Wilson — the BMV/CQ proponents themselves. True count: three distinct arguments, two author groups, one of them the no-go's stakeholders. 'Trending dead' survives on corrected, weaker sociological evidence. Further: note Bose (BMV original author) among the Braccini authors when amending HYP-GIE-DISCRIM; Nimmrichter et al.'s 'PRL 2026' is unverified from the abstract page (cite by arXiv ID); the microchip-trap reference (2411.02325) is uncited in the audit trail — mark unverified.

R5-F8 (dead-end ledger) — KEEP, severity minor. Fermilab news page fetched (Hogan null at high significance, with Hogan's own one-model caveat); GQuEST re-analysis bounds re-read from full text; the no-transfer-to-VZ caveat is the load-bearing subtlety and is correct. Repairs: (i) same independence correction as F7; (ii) the Hossenfelder critique is retrospective (2019 post), not 'contemporaneous' — her substance ('ruled out before the experiment even started') is preserved; (iii) the same post records unresolved Lorentz-invariance worries about VZ itself — carry that caveat so the Hogan/VZ contrast is not over-drawn. The 2512.13675 label resolves to Tang–Yang–Han–Kan–Liu–Xue (the finder's 'Khosravi (?)' guess was wrong but self-flagged). The closing OPEN absence-of-evidence statement is exemplary scoping.

Track verdict. The governing watchlist caveat — none of these channels tests the central wager — survives its strongest candidate counterexample, for the reason F2 gives: the VZ chain installs η=1/4G at the modular→metric step, so GQuEST is wager-independent in both directions. Nothing in this track engages, let alone reopens, the two analytic hedges (OP-46 residual; OP-48c horn C). The proposed CONCLUSION §7 sharpening ('no experiment decides the wager; exactly one funded experiment probes a conjecture inspired by it, with an uncomputed amplitude') strengthens the standing text and is approved. Proposed wiki actions approved after the corrections above, with one addition: the new 'program-adjacent phenomenology' category definition should state explicitly that occupancy of the category is not evidence for the program — that is precisely the inferential leak it exists to prevent.