UNIVERSAL PHYSICS

§ 12updated 2026-06-10

On this page
Map of the experiment watchlist in four columns: gate (BMV/QGEM, 10 to 20 plus years; the classical-quantum trade-off, running now), cores (collapse bounds decisive around 2035; Lorentz-invariance and equivalence-principle nulls; gravitational-wave strong-field nulls), target (dark-energy w of z with a 2027 decision point; neutrino-mass cosmology), and program-adjacent phenomenology (GQuEST, 2 to 5 years). All four columns connect downward to a box labelled the central wager, with the annotation that no channel decides it even in principle.GATEis gravity non-classical?BMV / QGEM~10–20+ yr (2030s–40s)CQ TRADE-OFFrunning now — classical-side closureCORESlinearity · Lorentz · strong-field GRCOLLAPSE BOUNDSdecisive coverage ~2035LIV / EP NULLS0–10 yr null anchorGW STRONG-FIELDcontinuous (O4/O5)TARGETis the universe eternal dS?w(z) — DESI/EUCLIDdecision point 2027Σmν COSMOLOGY~1–4 yrPROGRAM-ADJACENTphenomenology, not the wagerGQuEST / VZ NOISE~2–5 yr; chain inputs η=1/4GTHE CENTRAL WAGERcausal/algebraic/entanglement structure precedes metric geometryNO CHANNEL DECIDES IT — even in principle (HYP-ENCODING-SCREEN, MEDIUM hedge)
FIG 12.1 — The watchlist taxonomy with decision windows. Every live channel constrains the program's gate (is gravity non-classical?), its fixed cores (exact linearity, Lorentz invariance, strong-field GR), its target (eternal dS?), or program-adjacent phenomenology (GQuEST, whose inference chain re-imports η = 1/4G). NO channel decides the central wager — as of iteration 6 a corollary of the encode-not-generate obstruction (HYP-ENCODING-SCREEN), inheriting its MEDIUM hedge.

Experiment Watchlist

Status: Living watch-list (post-saturation mode). The analytical program is saturated (see CONCLUSION.md); the object-level verdict is now gated by experiment, not by further reasoning. This page tracks the channels that bear on the landscape. Refreshed and extended in iteration 6 (2026-06-10). Last updated: 2026-06-10

Read this caveat first. NO channel on this page decides the central wager (causal/algebraic/entanglement structure precedes metric geometry) — a fact that, as of iteration 6, is a corollary of the encode-not-generate obstruction (HYP-ENCODING-SCREEN, HYPOTHESES.md) and inherits its MEDIUM hedge, not merely an observation about the 2026 landscape. The channels constrain the program's logical gate (is gravity non-classical?), its fixed cores (is linearity/Lorentz/strong-field GR exact?), its correct target (is the universe eternal dS?), or — a fourth category added this iteration — program-adjacent phenomenology: GQuEST is the first funded experiment probing a conjecture inspired by Program A's modular/causal-diamond vocabulary, but its inference chain re-imports the area-entropy coefficient η=1/4G\eta=1/4G at the modular→metric step (extending HYP-dS-CARDINALITY-R1's pattern from derivation routes to a phenomenological chain), so it is decision-grade only for minimal-graviton-EFT IR noise vs exotic Planck-normalized UV-IR mixing — on no reading a wager test. A positive anywhere yields abductive support at most, never class-level separation. Note also the asymmetric gate-closure route: falsification of the explicit classical-quantum (CQ) diffusion kernels would close the gate from the classical side — by eliminating the principal live local stochastic classical alternative, within that model-class scope — possibly years before any BMV-style entanglement witness runs. That the wager remains untestable even in principle until a distinguishing prediction is found is the standing obstacle, not a temporary gap.

Empirical channels

ChannelWhat it decidesCurrent statusDecision windowWhat a result changes
BMV / QGEM gravitationally-induced entanglementProgram A's logical gate: is gravity non-classical? (m2m^2 vs m3m^3 witness scaling)Not yet performed; ~6–10 orders below required mass/coherence; no funded experimental roadmap with milestones exists publicly as of mid-2026; mediation-vs-locality premise CONTESTED; a 2026 claim that the leading-order qubit entangling phase is mass-INDEPENDENT in Stern–Gerlach protocols (Braccini–Serafini–Bose, arXiv:2602.19306) would make the m2m^2-vs-m3m^3 discriminator protocol-dependent SPECULATIVE/INFERENCE~10–20+ yr (2030s–40s)A positive m2m^2 witness excludes mean-field semiclassical + classical-channel gravity → gravity carries quantum info in the Newtonian sector. Does not prove graviton quantization or the wager. Note: the gate may instead close from the classical side via the CQ row below.
Objective-collapse bounds (CSL / Diósi–Penrose)A fixed core: is exact linearity true at the macroscopic-superposition scale?Parameter-free DP excluded; large CSL swaths excluded; no detectiondecisive coverage ~2035Detection falsifies "exact unitarity as a fixed core" (A-3); null results push λ\lambda down. The empirically live way exact linearity could be false.
Dynamical dark energy w(z)w(z) (DESI DR3+, Euclid, Roman, LSST)Program A's correct target: eternal dS, metastable dS, or rolling quintessence?DESI DR2 (PRD 112, 083515 (2025)): 2.8–4.2σ preference for w0waw_0w_aCDM, w0>−1w_0>-1, wa<0w_a<0; sample- and SN-calibration-dependent CONTESTED; DESI 5-yr survey complete (Apr 2026, >47M objects); full five-year analysis expected 2027 — the decision point; Euclid DR1 (first cosmology) 2026-10-21; Roman launch 2026-08-30; Rubin LSST 10-yr survey underway~1–3 yr (2027 first decisive verdict; multi-survey confrontation by ~2028–2030)w(z)≠−1w(z)\neq-1 confirmed ⇒ the holographic/emergence target is not eternal dS, weakening the motivation for a strict Λ>0 first law (A-20). Tests the target, not the wager.
LIV / EP nulls (GRB time-of-flight, CTA; torsion-balance, MICROSCOPE, LLR)Robustness of the surviving cores: exact local Lorentz invariance + a single causal orderNo confirmed LIV; LHAASO GRB 221009A (arXiv:2402.06009, PRL): EQG,1>10 EPlE_{\rm QG,1}>10\,E_{\rm Pl} (linear) and EQG,2>6×10−8 EPlE_{\rm QG,2}>6\times10^{-8}\,E_{\rm Pl} (quadratic) — first-order Planck-suppressed LIV excluded an order beyond the Planck scale; WEP: MICROSCOPE final η(Ti,Pt)∼10−15\eta({\rm Ti,Pt})\sim10^{-15} (PRL 129, 121102 (2022)); torsion balances ∼10−13\sim10^{-13}0–10 yr (mostly a null-result anchor)Confirmed LIV would refute "exact Lorentz + single causal order held fixed" and threaten emergent-causal-order tracks (H1/H3/H6).
Matter-wave / levitated optomechanics (enabling tech)Shared enabler: gates BMV and tightens collapse boundsRecord: sodium nanoclusters >7,000 atoms, >1.7×105>1.7\times10^5 Da interfered in a time-domain Talbot–Lau interferometer (arXiv:2507.21211; Nature 649, 866 (2026)); macroscopicity μ=15.5\mu=15.5 — the most stringent generic-macrorealism exclusion to date; still ~7–8 orders below BMV-decisive masses5–15 yrThe bridge technology both live channels depend on; no theory target is empirically decidable without it.
GQuEST / Verlinde–Zurek geontropic noise (program-adjacent phenomenology)EFT-breakdown discriminator: minimal graviton-EFT IR noise δL2∼ℓp2\delta L^2\sim\ell_p^2 (Carney–Karydas–Sivaramakrishnan, PRD 113, 106002 (2026)) vs Planck-normalized correlated noise δL2≃ℓpL/4π\delta L^2\simeq\ell_p L/4\pi (pixellon; amplitude α\alpha not derived from any UV-complete theory). Not the wager — the chain inputs η=1/4G\eta=1/4GDesign PRX 15, 011034 (2025); under construction at Caltech (DOE-funded); no science data as of 2026-06; existing bounds α≲0.6\alpha\lesssim0.6–3 (IR-cutoff-dependent); α≳0.1\alpha\gtrsim0.1 without IR cutoff already dead (LIGO)~2–5 yr (5σ5\sigma on α=1\alpha=1 in O(105)O(10^5) s once running)Detection ⇒ either severe IR breakdown of graviton EFT or a non-vacuum graviton state (Freidel–Oberfrank confound) — enormous; abductive support for holographic modular counting; reopens UNIFICATION_LANDSCAPE.md; still does not flip the wager from not-yet-physics. Null ⇒ kills the α∼O(1)\alpha\sim O(1) pixellon normalization only.
CQ decoherence–diffusion trade-off (gate, from the classical side)Is gravity non-classical? — by squeezing the consistent classical-quantum hybrid class (Oppenheim PRX 13, 041040 (2023); trade-off theorem Nat. Commun. 14, 7910 (2023))Data-driven (Janse et al., PRResearch 6, 033076 (2024)): ultralocal-continuous dead; ultralocal-discrete window below the experimental upper bound (modulo stated caveats); non-local continuous survives by ~1 order. Counter-pressure: Hotta–Murk–Terno "QG in disguise" embedding claim CONTESTEDRunning now (analysis of existing force-noise + coherence data); years before BMVComplete falsification of the explicit CQ kernels closes the gate by elimination of the principal classical alternative (model-class-scoped) — the asymmetric gate-closure route; a detection of anomalous diffusion would upend the gate entirely.
GW strong-field nulls (core robustness anchor)Is GR exact in the strong field; are remnants Kerr? (Recorded as a core claim under test, not a pre-existing wiki core)GWTC-4.0 (2025-08-26) + tests-of-GR companions: no deviations, no echoes, Kerr-consistent; GW250114 (SNR 80): two ringdown modes, (2,2,0)(2,2,0) + overtone Kerr-consistent (tens of percent); area law confirmed (arXiv:2509.08054, PRL 135, 111403 (2025)); GWTC-5.0 (2026-05-26): 390 detections totalContinuous (O4/O5; next data release Dec 2026)A confirmed echo or non-Kerr QNM would reopen near-horizon structure assumptions some Program-A constructions lean on; continuing nulls harden them.
Neutrino-mass cosmology (target-adjacent ΛCDM stressor)Whether ΛCDM's neutrino sector is consistent — entangled with the w0waw_0w_a degeneracy (one underlying ΛCDM stress with the w(z) row, not two)DESI DR2+CMB: Σmν<0.0642\Sigma m_\nu<0.0642 eV (95%, ΛCDM) — below the inverted-ordering floor; effective-mass parameter prefers negative values at ~3σ vs the oscillation floor (arXiv:2503.14744); relaxes to <0.163<0.163 eV in w0waw_0w_aCDM; direction dataset-dependent CONTESTED~1–4 yr (DESI 5-yr 2027; Euclid DR1; JUNO ordering; KATRIN)Persistence after the 2027 w(z) verdict would indicate a real ΛCDM crack on the target side; dissolution in w0waw_0w_aCDM would fold it into the w(z) decision.

Channel notes

  • BMV / QGEM. The Bose–Marletto–Vedral proposal: if two ~10−1410^{-14} kg masses in spatial superposition become entangled purely via gravity, then — given the LOCC no-go and a local-mediation premise — the gravitational mediator is non-classical. The inferential weight sits on the mediation premise, which is logically stronger than no-signaling and is actively disputed (Di Biagio 2025; Aziz–Howl 2025 m3m^3 loophole vs rebuttals). A decisive run needs a joint entanglement detection + decoherence bound and an m2m^2-vs-m3m^3 scaling test. See GAPS_AND_CONTRADICTIONS.md GC-15, OP-40, HYP-GIE-DISCRIM. 2026 status (iteration 6): the Aziz–Howl m3m^3 loophole is trending dead under three rebuttal arguments from two author groups (Marletto–Oppenheim–Vedral–Wilson 2511.07348; Tang–Yang–Han–Kan–Liu–Xue 2512.13675 + 2604.16276 — the latter now verified real, upgrading the tabletop note's unverified flag), but the rebuttal literature is not yet sociologically independent of the no-go's stakeholders CONTESTED. The mass-independent-entangling-phase claim (Braccini–Serafini–Bose, arXiv:2602.19306 — note Bose is a BMV original author) complicates HYP-GIE-DISCRIM: mass-scaling discriminators become protocol-dependent.
  • GQuEST / Verlinde–Zurek. The VZ chain: holographic modular-fluctuation area law ⟨ΔK2⟩=⟨K⟩=A/4G\langle\Delta K^2\rangle=\langle K\rangle=A/4G INFERENCE within AdS/CFT → AdS-to-flat lightsheet transfer SPECULATIVE → fluctuations gravitate as a coherent s-wave breathing mode (pixellon) SPECULATIVE, load-bearing; Aalsma–Bak: whether QG vacua contain the required mode "remains unresolved" → interferometer PSD with free α=O(1)\alpha=O(1). The wager contributes no link. Hogan's holographic noise (the Holometer's original target) is dead, and its null does NOT transfer to VZ. See HYP-dS-CARDINALITY-R1, notes/2026-06-10-iter6-qg-phenomenology.md, notes/2026-06-10-iter6-distinguishing-prediction-hunt.md.
  • Objective collapse. GRW/CSL and Diósi–Penrose evade the Gisin–Polchinski deterministic-nonlinearity no-go by being stochastic. X-ray/heating searches (Donadi et al. 2021) and LISA-Pathfinder already exclude the parameter-free DP model. See ASSUMPTIONS_LEDGER.md A-3, notes/2026-06-08-born-rule-and-quantum-linearity.md. Iteration-6 note: the "~decisive coverage by 2035" date has no external anchor — flag as an internal extrapolation; the interferometric frontier is advancing faster than older projections while the 10510^5–101810^{18} amu bulk remains untested.
  • Dark energy w(z)w(z). DESI DR2 (arXiv:2503.14738) prefers w0waw_0w_aCDM over ΛCDM at 2.8–4.2σ. If confirmed, it reframes the dS-emergence target (A-20). See domains/cosmology.md, CONSTANTS_AND_SCALES.md. Iteration-6 note: everpresent Λ — the nearest existing template of a wager-class prediction — is CMB-disfavored in its current implementations (Das–Nasiri–Yazdi 2307.13743, preprint) and, as of 2026-06-10, no published confrontation with the DESI w0waw_0w_a posterior exists: an identified gap, watch for it.
  • LIV / EP. Mostly a robustness anchor for the established cores; a discovery here would be the surprise that reopens the locality/causal-order assumptions.

Theory watch-items (would reopen the analysis, not just the landscape)

These are the residual open levers from CONCLUSION.md §5. None is currently movable without genuinely new input:

  1. The verdict-flipper (OP-46 residual; compressed form). A construction outputting a Lorentzian causal/metric structure from genuinely non-symmetric (algebra, state) data, installing no fundamental symmetry / η-form / foliation / twist — nor an indefinite-pairing/(n,n) axiom, nor a signature-valued template (HYP-CKV-VACUITY-R3). Compressed iteration-6 form: derive the indefinite pairing from modular data. Nearest sketch (Lee 2020) is selection-type and fails the spec. Still the single development that would flip "encodes" to "generates" — and now, via HYP-ENCODING-SCREEN, also the prerequisite for any distinguishing experiment. See HYPOTHESES.md.
  2. OP-44 / OP-CP1. Restructured (iteration 6): no-commutant theorem + crossed-product rigidity on the AdS time-band model (Jensen–Raju–Speranza); order-GN2G_N^2 obligation located at the quadratic boost constraints (De Vuyst–Eccles–Höhn–Kirklin); survival side theorem-grade at linearized order incl. the QFC (KLS-II; Chandrasekaran–Flanagan); fourth option "survives-after-averaging over NN" (Kudler-Flam–Witten). The bulk N∗N_\ast boundary is still theorem-free on both sides.
  3. OP-49 (OP-dS-PSEUDO-REALITY) — CLOSED (near-no-go, resolved-negative, conditional; iteration 6). Removed from the open watch-items; residuals (exceptional-point transition matrices; an SVD-entropy first law — one stated decidable computation remains) tracked in OPEN_PROBLEMS.md.
  4. OP-48(c) horn (C). Hedge shrunk (iteration 6): theorem-shaped under the full-pair reading; residual = the GPT formalization choice + the III₁-embezzlement composition alternative.
  5. OP-50 (new, CONTESTED). The closed-universe Hilbert-space problem: is dim⁡Hclosed=1\dim\mathcal H_{\rm closed}=1 per α-sector, with QM recovered only observer-relationally? An independent path-integral route to OP-48(c)'s conditional structure; watch the ARSSV / Hong Liu / Engelhardt–Gesteau counter-positions. See OPEN_PROBLEMS.md.

How to use this page

Update a row when a channel reports new bounds or a detection; log the change and any re-tag in CHANGELOG.md. If a theory watch-item is resolved, reopen CONCLUSION.md and re-run the relevant analytical track. A confirmed positive in any empirical channel resolves a gate/core/target — record it here and propagate to the affected pages, but do not mistake it for confirmation of the central wager.

See also