Experiment Watchlist

Status: Living watch-list (post-saturation mode). The analytical program is saturated (see CONCLUSION.md); the object-level verdict is now gated by experiment, not by further reasoning. This page tracks the channels that bear on the landscape. Refreshed and extended in iteration 6 (2026-06-10); clocks re-verified in watch-sweep #1 (notes/2026-07-02-watch-sweep-01.md). Last updated: 2026-07-07

Read this caveat first. NO channel on this page decides the central wager (causal/algebraic/entanglement structure precedes metric geometry) — a fact that, as of iteration 6, is a corollary of the encode-not-generate obstruction (HYP-ENCODING-SCREEN, HYPOTHESES.md) and inherits its MEDIUM hedge, not merely an observation about the 2026 landscape. The channels constrain the program's logical gate (is gravity non-classical?), its fixed cores (is linearity/Lorentz/strong-field GR exact?), its correct target (is the universe eternal dS?), or — a fourth category added this iteration — program-adjacent phenomenology: GQuEST is the first funded experiment probing a conjecture inspired by Program A's modular/causal-diamond vocabulary, but its inference chain re-imports the area-entropy coefficient $\eta=1/4G$ at the modular→metric step (extending HYP-dS-CARDINALITY-R1's pattern from derivation routes to a phenomenological chain), so it is decision-grade only for minimal-graviton-EFT IR noise vs exotic Planck-normalized UV-IR mixing — on no reading a wager test. A positive anywhere yields abductive support at most, never class-level separation. Note also the asymmetric gate-closure route: falsification of the explicit classical-quantum (CQ) diffusion kernels would close the gate from the classical side — by eliminating the principal live local stochastic classical alternative, within that model-class scope — possibly years before any BMV-style entanglement witness runs. That the wager remains untestable even in principle until a distinguishing prediction is found is the standing obstacle, not a temporary gap.

Empirical channels

Channel	What it decides	Current status	Decision window	What a result changes
BMV / QGEM gravitationally-induced entanglement	Program A's logical gate: is gravity non-classical? ( $m^2$ vs $m^3$ witness scaling)	Not yet performed; ~6–10 orders below required mass/coherence; no funded experimental roadmap with milestones exists publicly as of mid-2026; mediation-vs-locality premise CONTESTED; a 2026 claim that the leading-order qubit entangling phase is mass-INDEPENDENT in Stern–Gerlach protocols (Braccini–Serafini–Bose, arXiv:2602.19306) would make the $m^2$ -vs- $m^3$ discriminator protocol-dependent SPECULATIVE/INFERENCE; witness family widened beyond the Newtonian phase: first genuinely post-Newtonian GIE channel — entanglement via frame dragging (Lense–Thirring), derived two independent ways (Wakakuwa–Petruzziello–Lantaño–Huelga–Plenio, arXiv:2606.31678) ESTABLISHED as derivation, un-refereed v1; same gate/class status	~10–20+ yr (2030s–40s)	A positive $m^2$ witness excludes mean-field semiclassical + classical-channel gravity → gravity carries quantum info in the Newtonian sector. Does not prove graviton quantization or the wager. Note: the gate may instead close from the classical side via the CQ row below.
Objective-collapse bounds (CSL / Diósi–Penrose)	A fixed core: is exact linearity true at the macroscopic-superposition scale?	Parameter-free DP excluded; DP $R_0>4.9$ Å (90% CL); canonical white-noise CSL points (GRW, Adler) excluded — GRW point 9.1σ from best fit (XENONnT, PRL 136, 120201 (2026), arXiv:2506.05507; $\lambda/r_C^2<3.0\times10^{-3}$ s $^{-1}$ m $^{-2}$ , most stringent for $r_C\lesssim10^{-5}$ m); colored/dissipative extensions + large- $r_C$ corners survive; no detection	decisive coverage ~2035	Detection falsifies "exact unitarity as a fixed core" (A-3); null results push $\lambda$ down. The empirically live way exact linearity could be false.
Dynamical dark energy $w(z)$ (DESI DR3+, Euclid, Roman, LSST)	Program A's correct target: eternal dS, metastable dS, or rolling quintessence?	DESI DR2 (PRD 112, 083515 (2025)): 2.8–4.2σ preference for $w_0w_a$ CDM, $w_0>-1$ , $w_a<0$ ; sample- and SN-calibration-dependent CONTESTED; DESI 5-yr survey complete (Apr 2026, >47M objects); full five-year analysis expected 2027 — the decision point; Euclid DR1 restructured (ESA announcement 2026-06-15, verified): DR1-Foundation Nov 2026 (raw+calibrated only), complete DR1 with GC+WL cosmology products mid-2027; Roman at KSC since 2026-06-21, launch NET 2026-08-30 (Falcon Heavy); Rubin LSST 10-yr survey underway	~1–3 yr (2027 first decisive verdict; multi-survey confrontation by ~2028–2030)	$w(z)\neq-1$ confirmed ⇒ the holographic/emergence target is not eternal dS, weakening the motivation for a strict Λ>0 first law (A-20). Tests the target, not the wager.
LIV / EP nulls (GRB time-of-flight, CTA; torsion-balance, MICROSCOPE, LLR)	Robustness of the surviving cores: exact local Lorentz invariance + a single causal order	No confirmed LIV; LHAASO GRB 221009A (arXiv:2402.06009, PRL): $E_{\rm QG,1}>10\,E_{\rm Pl}$ (linear) and $E_{\rm QG,2}>6\times10^{-8}\,E_{\rm Pl}$ (quadratic) — first-order Planck-suppressed LIV excluded an order beyond the Planck scale; WEP: MICROSCOPE final $\eta({\rm Ti,Pt})\sim10^{-15}$ (PRL 129, 121102 (2022)); torsion balances $\sim10^{-13}$	0–10 yr (mostly a null-result anchor)	Confirmed LIV would refute "exact Lorentz + single causal order held fixed" and threaten emergent-causal-order tracks (H1/H3/H6).
Matter-wave / levitated optomechanics (enabling tech)	Shared enabler: gates BMV and tightens collapse bounds	Record: sodium nanoclusters >7,000 atoms, $>1.7\times10^5$ Da interfered in a time-domain Talbot–Lau interferometer (arXiv:2507.21211; Nature 649, 866 (2026)); macroscopicity $\mu=15.5$ — the most stringent generic-macrorealism exclusion to date; still ~7–8 orders below BMV-decisive masses	5–15 yr	The bridge technology both live channels depend on; no theory target is empirically decidable without it.
GQuEST / Verlinde–Zurek geontropic noise (program-adjacent phenomenology)	EFT-breakdown discriminator: minimal graviton-EFT IR noise $\delta L^2\sim\ell_p^2$ (Carney–Karydas–Sivaramakrishnan, PRD 113, 106002 (2026)) vs Planck-normalized correlated noise $\delta L^2\simeq\ell_p L/4\pi$ (pixellon; amplitude $\alpha$ not derived from any UV-complete theory). Not the wager — the chain inputs $\eta=1/4G$	Design PRX 15, 011034 (2025); under construction at Caltech (DOE-funded); no science data as of 2026-06; existing bounds $\alpha\lesssim0.6$ –3 (IR-cutoff-dependent); $\alpha\gtrsim0.1$ without IR cutoff already dead (LIGO)	~2–5 yr ( $5\sigma$ on $\alpha=1$ in $O(10^5)$ s once running)	Detection ⇒ either severe IR breakdown of graviton EFT or a non-vacuum graviton state (Freidel–Oberfrank confound) — enormous; abductive support for holographic modular counting; reopens UNIFICATION_LANDSCAPE.md; still does not flip the wager from not-yet-physics. Null ⇒ kills the $\alpha\sim O(1)$ pixellon normalization only. A signal would be classified by the Sharmila–Vermeulen–Datta three-class correlator taxonomy (Nat. Commun. 17, 701 (2026), arXiv:2505.22892), whose classes are mechanism-blind by construction — geontropic (emergent) and Károlyházy (fundamental-metric stochastic) co-inhabit class (b); Oppenheim CQ and CSL co-inhabit class (a) — so no class is realizable only by a non-fundamental-metric model: a published worked instance of the encoding screen, not a wager discriminator (2026-06-10 distinguishing-test hunt).
CQ decoherence–diffusion trade-off (gate, from the classical side)	Is gravity non-classical? — by squeezing the consistent classical-quantum hybrid class (Oppenheim PRX 13, 041040 (2023); trade-off theorem Nat. Commun. 14, 7910 (2023))	Data-driven (Janse et al., PRResearch 6, 033076 (2024)): ultralocal-continuous dead; ultralocal-discrete window below the experimental upper bound (modulo stated caveats); non-local continuous survives by ~1 order. Counter-pressure: Hotta–Murk–Terno "QG in disguise" embedding claim CONTESTED	Running now (analysis of existing force-noise + coherence data); years before BMV	Complete falsification of the explicit CQ kernels closes the gate by elimination of the principal classical alternative (model-class-scoped) — the asymmetric gate-closure route; a detection of anomalous diffusion would upend the gate entirely.
GW strong-field nulls (core robustness anchor)	Is GR exact in the strong field; are remnants Kerr? (Recorded as a core claim under test, not a pre-existing wiki core)	GWTC-4.0 (2025-08-26) + tests-of-GR companions: no deviations, no echoes, Kerr-consistent; GW250114 (SNR 80): two ringdown modes, $(2,2,0)$ + overtone Kerr-consistent (tens of percent); area law confirmed (arXiv:2509.08054, PRL 135, 111403 (2025)); GWTC-5.0 (2026-05-26): 390 detections total	Continuous (O4/O5; next data release Dec 2026)	A confirmed echo or non-Kerr QNM would reopen near-horizon structure assumptions some Program-A constructions lean on; continuing nulls harden them.
Neutrino-mass cosmology (target-adjacent ΛCDM stressor)	Whether ΛCDM's neutrino sector is consistent — entangled with the $w_0w_a$ degeneracy (one underlying ΛCDM stress with the w(z) row, not two)	DESI DR2+CMB: $\Sigma m_\nu<0.0642$ eV (95%, ΛCDM) — below the inverted-ordering floor; effective-mass parameter prefers negative values at ~3σ vs the oscillation floor (arXiv:2503.14744); relaxes to $<0.163$ eV in $w_0w_a$ CDM; direction dataset-dependent CONTESTED	~1–4 yr (DESI 5-yr 2027; Euclid DR1; JUNO ordering; KATRIN)	Persistence after the 2027 w(z) verdict would indicate a real ΛCDM crack on the target side; dissolution in $w_0w_a$ CDM would fold it into the w(z) decision.

Channel notes

BMV / QGEM. The Bose–Marletto–Vedral proposal: if two ~ $10^{-14}$ kg masses in spatial superposition become entangled purely via gravity, then — given the LOCC no-go and a local-mediation premise — the gravitational mediator is non-classical. The inferential weight sits on the mediation premise, which is logically stronger than no-signaling and is actively disputed (Di Biagio 2025; Aziz–Howl 2025 $m^3$ loophole vs rebuttals). A decisive run needs a joint entanglement detection + decoherence bound and an $m^2$ -vs- $m^3$ scaling test. See GAPS_AND_CONTRADICTIONS.md GC-15, OP-40, HYP-GIE-DISCRIM. 2026 status (iteration 6): the Aziz–Howl $m^3$ loophole is trending dead under three rebuttal arguments from two author groups (Marletto–Oppenheim–Vedral–Wilson 2511.07348; Tang–Yang–Han–Kan–Liu–Xue 2512.13675 + 2604.16276 — the latter now verified real, upgrading the tabletop note's unverified flag), but the rebuttal literature is not yet sociologically independent of the no-go's stakeholders CONTESTED. The mass-independent-entangling-phase claim (Braccini–Serafini–Bose, arXiv:2602.19306 — note Bose is a BMV original author) complicates HYP-GIE-DISCRIM: mass-scaling discriminators become protocol-dependent.
GQuEST / Verlinde–Zurek. The VZ chain: holographic modular-fluctuation area law $\langle\Delta K^2\rangle=\langle K\rangle=A/4G$ INFERENCE within AdS/CFT → AdS-to-flat lightsheet transfer SPECULATIVE → fluctuations gravitate as a coherent s-wave breathing mode (pixellon) SPECULATIVE, load-bearing; Aalsma–Bak: whether QG vacua contain the required mode "remains unresolved" → interferometer PSD with free $\alpha=O(1)$ . The wager contributes no link. Hogan's holographic noise (the Holometer's original target) is dead, and its null does NOT transfer to VZ. See HYP-dS-CARDINALITY-R1, notes/2026-06-10-iter6-qg-phenomenology.md, notes/2026-06-10-iter6-distinguishing-prediction-hunt.md. 2026-06-10 distinguishing-test hunt: the Sharmila–Vermeulen–Datta correlator taxonomy (verified Nat. Commun. 17, 701 (2026)) is the sharpest published statement of what a signal pins down — the symmetry/decay class of the noise two-point function — and is itself mechanism-blind: its model table is many-to-one (CSL, Diósi–Penrose, Oppenheim, Károlyházy → class (a); geontropic + EFTs → class (b)), so the model→class map is non-invertible and cannot recover whether the metric is fundamental. See notes/2026-06-10-distinguishing-test-hunt.md.
Objective collapse. GRW/CSL and Diósi–Penrose evade the Gisin–Polchinski deterministic-nonlinearity no-go by being stochastic. X-ray/heating searches (Donadi et al. 2021) and LISA-Pathfinder already exclude the parameter-free DP model. See ASSUMPTIONS_LEDGER.md A-3, notes/2026-06-08-born-rule-and-quantum-linearity.md. Iteration-6 note: the "~decisive coverage by 2035" date has no external anchor — flag as an internal extrapolation; the interferometric frontier is advancing faster than older projections while the $10^5$ – $10^{18}$ amu bulk remains untested. 2026-07 (Track R2): the arXiv:2506.05507 bound is the XENONnT Collaboration's (the iteration-12 sweep's "VIP/XENONnT" conflated two programs — VIP-3 is that group's Pauli-exclusion arm, data from 2025, Entropy 26, 752 (2024)); LISA-Pathfinder updates: PRA 111, L020203 (2025) (rotational, ~2× at large $r_C$ ) and arXiv:2411.17588 [preprint] ( $\lambda\lesssim8.3\times10^{-11}$ s $^{-1}$ at $r_C=10^{-7}$ m). With GRW and Adler points both dead, the surviving Markovian space has no independently motivated targets; colored-noise/dissipative escapes evade radiation bounds by construction, so complete closure is not guaranteed by any funded roadmap — the "~2035 decisive coverage" flag stands. Bound table: notes/2026-07-02-measurement-problem-operationalized.md.
Dark energy $w(z)$ . DESI DR2 (arXiv:2503.14738) prefers $w_0w_a$ CDM over ΛCDM at 2.8–4.2σ. If confirmed, it reframes the dS-emergence target (A-20). See domains/cosmology.md, CONSTANTS_AND_SCALES.md. Iteration-6 note: everpresent Λ — the nearest existing template of a wager-class prediction — is CMB-disfavored in its current implementations (Das–Nasiri–Yazdi 2307.13743, preprint) and, as of 2026-06-10, no published confrontation with the DESI $w_0w_a$ posterior exists: an identified gap, watch for it.
LIV / EP. Mostly a robustness anchor for the established cores; a discovery here would be the surprise that reopens the locality/causal-order assumptions.

Theory watch-items (would reopen the analysis, not just the landscape)

These are the residual open levers from CONCLUSION.md §5. None is currently movable without genuinely new input:

The verdict-flipper (OP-46 residual; compressed form). A construction outputting a Lorentzian causal/metric structure from genuinely non-symmetric (algebra, state) data, installing no fundamental symmetry / η-form / foliation / twist — nor an indefinite-pairing/(n,n) axiom, nor a signature-valued template (HYP-CKV-VACUITY-R3). Compressed iteration-6 form: derive the indefinite pairing from modular data. Nearest sketch (Lee 2020) is selection-type and fails the spec. Still the single development that would flip "encodes" to "generates" — and now, via HYP-ENCODING-SCREEN, also the prerequisite for any distinguishing experiment. See HYPOTHESES.md.
OP-44 / OP-CP1. Restructured (iteration 6): no-commutant theorem + crossed-product rigidity on the AdS time-band model (Jensen–Raju–Speranza); order- $G_N^2$ obligation located at the quadratic boost constraints (De Vuyst–Eccles–Höhn–Kirklin); survival side theorem-grade at linearized order incl. the QFC (KLS-II; Chandrasekaran–Flanagan); fourth option "survives-after-averaging over $N$ " (Kudler-Flam–Witten). The bulk $N_\ast$ boundary is still theorem-free on both sides.
OP-49 (OP-dS-PSEUDO-REALITY) — CLOSED (near-no-go, resolved-negative, conditional; iteration 6). Removed from the open watch-items; residuals (exceptional-point transition matrices; an SVD-entropy first law — one stated decidable computation remains) tracked in OPEN_PROBLEMS.md.
OP-48(c) horn (C). Hedge shrunk (iteration 6): theorem-shaped under the full-pair reading; residual = the GPT formalization choice + the III₁-embezzlement composition alternative.
OP-50 (new, CONTESTED). The closed-universe Hilbert-space problem: is $\dim\mathcal H_{\rm closed}=1$ per α-sector, with QM recovered only observer-relationally? An independent path-integral route to OP-48(c)'s conditional structure; watch the ARSSV / Hong Liu / Engelhardt–Gesteau counter-positions. See OPEN_PROBLEMS.md.
Reverse-Weinberg–Witten (un-registered; HYP-ENCODING-SCREEN portability corollary; OPEN, as of 2026-06). Exhibit an observable $X$ realizable in some theory with no fundamental metric degrees of freedom and by no core-satisfying fundamental-metric theory — or prove no such observable exists. Its existence would be the wager's first in-principle distinguishing test; its impossibility would make the §7 not-yet-physics verdict permanent-in-principle rather than contingent. The 2024–2026 distinguishing-test hunt confirms it is unattempted: emergent-gravity constructions only evade Weinberg–Witten (remove the background; zero $T_{\mu\nu}$ matrix elements) — exactly the moves that erase observational handles. NB: this is NOT "OP-50" (a working-note misnomer); reverse-WW carries no registry ID. See HYPOTHESES.md HYP-ENCODING-SCREEN, notes/2026-06-10-distinguishing-test-hunt.md.

2026-06 external-input sweep note (iteration 12)

Append-only; no new row, no registry ID. From the iteration-12 B3 track (referee-verified live).

Connes' bicentralizer problem re-confirmed OPEN in general (Ando–Goldbring, arXiv:2605.12776) — re-validates the binding iteration-11 correction; the carrier no-go is NOT equivalent to it.
Objective collapse — new 2026 bounds tighten the A-3 core, not the wager: VIP/XENONnT (CSL ~2 orders, Diósi–Penrose ~5×; no excess; primary arXiv:2506.05507, PRL March 2026).
DESI five-year $w(z)$ verdict reaffirmed 2027; the DR2 dynamical-dark-energy preference reduces to < 2σ under low-z SN-calibration systematics (Huang–Cai–Wang, arXiv:2502.04212); Roman launch 2026, Roman+Euclid joint dark-energy ~2027. Bears on Program A's target, never the wager.
Theory-watch-item 6 (reverse-WW): "GR from RG" (arXiv:2602.11806) confirmed an evade-not-invert Weinberg–Witten instance (UV-Dirichlet-fixed installed metric) — discharges the iteration-11 minor "WW gloss not confirmable" defect. Reverse-WW stays OPEN, as of 2026-06.
New 2026 carrier-adjacent math: the Morinelli–Neeb–Olafsson Euler-pair geometric-BW / Spin–Statistics theorems (arXiv:2603.26390 Part II / 2508.10960 Part I) are a cleaner statement of HYP-ENCODING-SCREEN (symmetry = input) — NOT a carrier, NOT a sixth route.

Watch-sweep #2 (2026-07-07) — no dated clock movement. From the iteration-17 pass (referee-verified live).

DESI five-year $w(z)$ analysis ~2027 UNCHANGED (2026-07-03 DESI post = outreach cosmic-web visualization, no science; observing into 2028). Euclid DR1 mid-2027 UNCHANGED. Roman launch NET 2026-08-30 on Falcon Heavy UNCHANGED (NASA blog 2026-07-06 vertical-positioning prelaunch milestone at KSC). Tabletop-QG cores (Oppenheim CQ; QGEM/BMV; GQuEST/Verlinde–Zurek): no in-window dated movement. The 2027 DESI $w(z)$ decision point holds as the nearest dated external event; none of these tests the wager.
Theory-watch-item (δ) — (E_O), the principal analytical clock: STATIC as to resolution, but iteration 17 sharpened its free-field branch — the sharpest decidable sub-target is now "prove purely continuous spectrum (no eigenvectors) of the massive double-cone one-particle modular Hamiltonian $\ln\delta_O$ for the free scalar" (⟹ (E_O) on the free subclass via weak mixing ⟹ R7 → R8 there). Adjacent numerics: Bostelmann–Cadamuro–Minz arXiv:2209.04681; Cadamuro arXiv:2312.08525 (leaning-true, no proof/closed-form). See notes/2026-07-07-iter17-EO-assault-synthesis.md.

How to use this page

Update a row when a channel reports new bounds or a detection; log the change and any re-tag in CHANGELOG.md. If a theory watch-item is resolved, reopen CONCLUSION.md and re-run the relevant analytical track. A confirmed positive in any empirical channel resolves a gate/core/target — record it here and propagate to the affected pages, but do not mistake it for confirmation of the central wager.