Iteration 6 — Experiment & Anomaly Refresh (mid-2026)

Status: Watchlist refresh — empirical channels only. No bearing on the analytical verdict in ../CONCLUSION.md; every item below lands in the gate/core/target taxonomy of ../EXPERIMENT_WATCHLIST.md. Last updated: 2026-06-10

Scope. Full refresh of ../EXPERIMENT_WATCHLIST.md and the empirical entries of ../OPEN_PROBLEMS.md (OP-18, OP-21, OP-26) as of 2026-06-10. All citations below were verified on the web this session unless marked unverified. Reminder (standing caveat): none of these channels tests the central wager; they constrain the gate (is gravity non-classical?), the cores (exact linearity/Lorentz/GR), or the target (eternal dS?).

1. Muon g-2 — closed, and now final (OP-21)

ESTABLISHED The Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment published its final measurement (June 2025, arXiv:2506.03069, PRL): $a_\mu^{\rm FNAL} = 116\,592\,070.5(14.8)\times10^{-11}$ at 127 ppb (beating the 140 ppb design goal); new experimental world average $a_\mu^{\rm exp} = 116\,592\,071.5(14.5)\times10^{-11}$ (124 ppb).

ESTABLISHED Against the Theory Initiative WP2025 prediction $a_\mu^{\rm SM} = 116\,592\,033(62)\times10^{-11}$ (arXiv:2505.21476, re-verified this session), the difference is $\Delta a_\mu = 38(63)\times10^{-11} \approx 0.6\sigma .$ The wiki's OP-21 numbers stand exactly. The anomaly is closed; the live residue is internal to theory: lattice HVP vs pre-CMD-3 $e^+e^-$ data-driven evaluations differ at $\sim 4.6\sigma$, the CMD-3 $\pi^+\pi^-$ discrepancy with the older data catalogue is unexplained, and WP2025 judges the data-driven approach currently unable to yield a reliable estimate ESTABLISHED. Post-WP2025 lattice work continues (e.g. NLO HVP, arXiv:2604.08351 unverified abstract). No post-2025 development reopens the BSM reading. OPEN only in the theory-systematics sense.

Row/page action: add the final-measurement citation to OP-21 and ../domains/particle-physics.md.

2. Flavor — the $b\to s\mu\mu$ anomaly sharpened to $\sim 4\sigma$ (OP-21)

ESTABLISHED measurement LHCb's comprehensive amplitude analysis of $B^0\to K^{*0}\mu^+\mu^-$ on the full Run 1+2 dataset (arXiv:2512.18053, submitted 2025-12-19; PRL April 2026, DOI 10.1103/24g9-yn9d) reports a tension with the SM of about $4\sigma$ (per the PRL publication and its press coverage), with independent supporting CMS results (2025). CONTESTED Interpretation: hadronic charm-loop/form-factor effects vs genuine new physics (leptoquark, $Z'$) — the same dispute the wiki already records, now at higher stakes. OP-21's "remain in mild tension" wording is stale.

This is the only new $\geq 4\sigma$ anomaly in fundamental physics found this session (see §10). It does not bear on Program A's gate/cores/target — it stays in OP-21, not the watchlist.

3. Dark energy $w(z)$ — DR2 stands; the decision point is 2027 (target row)

ESTABLISHED No DESI DR3 cosmology release exists as of 2026-06 (orchestrator lead corrected). DR2 BAO remains the latest word — now published as PRD 112, 083515 (2025) (arXiv:2503.14738, re-verified: $3.1\sigma$ for DESI+CMB alone; $2.8$–$4.2\sigma$ with SNe, sample-dependent; favored $w_0>-1$, $w_a<0$).

ESTABLISHED Status of the fleet:

• DESI completed its planned five-year survey in April 2026 (>47M galaxies/quasars vs 34M target); extended observations to 2028; full 5-yr dark-energy analysis expected 2027 (Fermilab news, April 2026).
• Euclid: Q1 released 2025-03-19; DR1 (first cosmology) planned October 2026 [reported by IRAP/Paris-Saclay; ESA primary page not fetched].
• Roman: construction complete 2025-11-25; launch set for 2026-08-30, eight months early.
• Rubin/LSST: first light 2025-06-23; operations handover 2025-10-25; 10-year survey began early 2026.

CONTESTED 2026 reviews (e.g. Turyshev, arXiv:2602.05368, verified) stress the $w_0w_a$ preference is dataset-dependent and sensitive to redshift-dependent SN calibration residuals at the few$\times10^{-2}$ mag level.

INFERENCE Row update: decision window compresses from "2–7 yr" to ~1–3 yr — the 2027 DESI full-survey analysis plus Euclid DR1 is the nearest-dated event that could reframe the eternal-dS target (ledger item A-20 in ../ASSUMPTIONS_LEDGER.md).

4. Hubble & $S_8$ — one sharpened, one eased (OP-18)

ESTABLISHED $H_0$: not resolved; arguably sharpened. JWST-era cross-checks validated the HST Cepheid ladder (dust excluded as the dominant systematic); the tension sits at roughly $5\sigma$. The late side is internally split: CCHP JWST TRGB/JAGB gives $H_0 \approx 70.4$, JWST SBF calibration gives $\approx 73.8$ km/s/Mpc CONTESTED, primary papers not fetched this session — figures from consistent multi-outlet coverage. GW standard sirens improved $H_0$ precision by ~25% (GWTC-5.0 era) but are not yet decisive.

ESTABLISHED $S_8$: substantially eased. KiDS-Legacy (complete Kilo-Degree Survey) finds $S_8 = 0.815^{+0.016}_{-0.021},$ in $0.73\sigma$ agreement with Planck (arXiv:2503.19441) — a 2.2σ reduction in marginal tension vs earlier KiDS, ~2/3 of it from improved redshift calibration; the joint KiDS-Legacy + DES Y3 + Pantheon+ + DESI Y1 analysis gives $S_8 = 0.814^{+0.011}_{-0.012}$, Planck-consistent (arXiv:2503.19442). A 2026 probe-discrepancy review exists (arXiv:2602.12238 unverified).

Page action: rewrite OP-18 to decouple the two tensions — $H_0$ stays CONTESTED at ~5σ; the "$\sim 2$–$3\sigma$ $S_8$ tension" clause is stale and should record the cosmic-shear axis as resolved-toward-Planck. Propagate to ../domains/cosmology.md.

5. Neutrino-mass cosmology — proposed NEW watchlist row

ESTABLISHED DESI DR2 BAO + CMB (arXiv:2503.14744, verified): $\sum m_\nu < 0.0642$ eV (95%, ΛCDM) — below the inverted-ordering minimum ($\approx 0.10$ eV) and pressing on the normal-ordering oscillation floor ($\sum m_\nu \gtrsim 0.059$ eV). With an effective mass parameter allowed negative, the data prefer $\sum m_{\nu,{\rm eff}} < 0$ at $\sim 3\sigma$ tension with the oscillation limit. In $w_0w_a$CDM the bound relaxes to $0.163$ eV and the tension dissolves — i.e. this tension and the $w(z)$ hint are entangled faces of one ΛCDM stress, not independent anomalies.

CONTESTED Direction is dataset-dependent: DESI DR2 + DES Y5 + DES Y1 instead yields a positive preference at $2.7\sigma$ (arXiv:2507.16589).

INFERENCE New row proposal — "Neutrino-mass cosmology ($\sum m_\nu$ vs oscillation floor)": decides internal consistency of the ΛCDM background assumed in target discussions; decision window ~1–4 yr (DESI 5-yr 2027, Euclid DR1, JUNO mass ordering, KATRIN). Cross-link to the $w(z)$ row.

6. Objective collapse & the matter-wave record (OP-26; enabling-tech row)

ESTABLISHED New interferometric record. The Vienna group interfered sodium nanoclusters of $>7{,}000$ atoms, $m > 1.7\times10^{5}$ Da in a time-domain interferometer, macroscopicity $\mu = 15.5$ (arXiv:2507.21211, verified; Nature, Jan 2026) — the first interference of massive metallic particles, ~7× the 2019 oligoporphyrin record ($2.5\times10^4$ Da, $\mu \approx 14$), and per the authors "the most stringent exclusion limit for generic macrorealistic modifications of the Schrödinger equation to date" (an order-of-magnitude advance). The watchlist's "superpositions to ~$10^4$–$10^5$ amu" is stale — the $10^5$ decade is now occupied.

ESTABLISHED Non-interferometric picture unchanged: parameter-free Diósi–Penrose remains excluded (underground X-ray; Donadi et al. 2021 unverified this session, carried from wiki); large CSL swaths excluded (XENONnT-class, optomechanics, cold atoms); standing review still Carlesso et al., Nature Physics 18, 243 (2022) (arXiv:2203.04231, verified) — no successor found.

INFERENCE The wiki's "decisive coverage ~2035": no external anchor found this session — treat as internal extrapolation. The interferometric frontier is advancing faster than older projections, but the untested bulk ($10^5$–$10^{18}$ amu) is vast; "~2035" remains plausible-but-unanchored. The gap from $1.7\times10^5$ Da to BMV-class masses ($\sim 10^{-14}$ kg $\approx 6\times10^{12}$ amu) is still ~7–8 orders.

7. LIV / EP — nulls anchor harder

ESTABLISHED LHAASO (GRB 221009A TeV afterglow; arXiv:2402.06009, verified; rev. Feb 2026): photon-dispersion bounds $E_{\rm QG,1} > 10\,E_{\rm Pl} \quad (n{=}1), \qquad E_{\rm QG,2} > 6\times10^{-8}\,E_{\rm Pl} \quad (n{=}2,\ 5\text{–}7\times \text{ improvement}).$ First-order Planck-suppressed photon LIV is excluded an order of magnitude beyond the Planck scale.

ESTABLISHED MICROSCOPE final (PRL 129, 121102 (2022); arXiv:2209.15487, verified): WEP holds at the $10^{-15}$ level for Ti/Pt — the wiki's row anchor confirmed. Eöt-Wash torsion-balance program continues (superconductor WEP test, PRD 111, L021101 (2025); ground-based $\eta \sim 10^{-13}$). No confirmed violation anywhere. The "exact Lorentz + single causal order" core (../UNIFYING_PRINCIPLES.md) is quantitatively reinforced.

8. Gravitational waves — proposed NEW watchlist row (strong-field GR nulls)

ESTABLISHED GWTC-4.0 (released 2025-08-26; O4a; +128 candidates) with three tests-of-GR companions (arXiv:2603.19019/19020/19021, March 2026): no evidence for deviations from GR across 91 confident signals — multipoles and polarizations GR-consistent, remnants Kerr-consistent, no post-merger echoes; apparent outliers reduce to no-strong-evidence under hierarchical combination (≲96%, consistent with finite-catalog variance).

ESTABLISHED GW250114 (SNR ≈ 80, loudest event to date; PRL 2025, arXiv:2509.08099): post-peak data consistent with the Kerr $(2,2,0)$ mode plus first overtone, frequencies constrained to ~30% of the Kerr spectrum; Hawking's area law $A_f > A_1+A_2$ confirmed at high credibility — the most stringent single-event verification of GR and Kerr-ness so far.

ESTABLISHED GWTC-5.0 (released 2026-05-26; O4b, Apr 2024–Jan 2025; LIGO Caltech page fetched): +161 detections, 390 total; further O4 data release pending December; standard-siren $H_0$ ~25% more precise.

INFERENCE New row proposal — "Strong-field GR / BH spectroscopy": a null-result anchor for the "GR exact, horizons Kerr" core, structurally parallel to LIV/EP. A confirmed echo or non-Kerr QNM would be the GW-sector surprise that reopens near-horizon assumptions; continuing nulls harden them. Decision window: continuous (O5 late 2020s).

9. BMV / QGEM — still entirely pre-experimental

INFERENCE from documented absence Targeted searches found no funded experimental roadmap with milestones as of mid-2026. Activity is theory/design only: QGEM parameter scanning with EM screening (design separation ~35 μm; arXiv:2502.12474), witness/decoherence studies, foundation grants to theory groups (Moore Foundation GBMF12328). The mediation-premise dispute (Di Biagio 2025; Aziz–Howl $m^3$) remains the live front, as already recorded in GC-15/OP-40. Row unchanged: ~10–20+ yr.

10. New-anomaly scan (threshold ~4σ)

• Qualifies: the LHCb $B^0\to K^{*0}\mu\mu$ ~4σ (§2). Nothing else new at $\geq 4\sigma$ was verified this session INFERENCE — scan is search-bounded.
• Sub-threshold watch item: KM3-230213A — KM3NeT/ARCA's ~220 PeV neutrino (the most energetic ever; published Feb 2025) sits at $2.5$–$3.5\sigma$ tension with IceCube/Auger non-observation (arXiv:2502.08173, verified). If hardened by further exposure: remarkable transient or new UHE propagation physics. Does not touch Program A's gate/cores/target.
• Standing items unchanged: $w(z)$ 2.8–4.2σ (§3); $H_0$ ~5σ (§4); effective-negative-$\sum m_\nu$ ~3σ (§5); S8 eased (§4); g-2 closed (§1).

11. Staleness flags — consolidated

References

Verified on the web this session unless marked.

• Muon g-2 Collaboration, Measurement of the Positive Muon Anomalous Magnetic Moment to 127 ppb, PRL (2025), arXiv:2506.03069. (FNAL news page fetched; arXiv values cross-checked.)
• Aliberti et al. (Muon g-2 Theory Initiative), The anomalous magnetic moment of the muon in the Standard Model: an update (WP2025), arXiv:2505.21476. (Abstract fetched.)
• LHCb Collaboration, A comprehensive analysis of the $B^0\to K^{*0}\mu^+\mu^-$ decay, arXiv:2512.18053; PRL (2026) DOI 10.1103/24g9-yn9d. (arXiv page fetched; 4σ figure via phys.org coverage, fetched.)
• DESI Collaboration, DESI DR2 Results II: BAO and Cosmological Constraints, PRD 112, 083515 (2025), arXiv:2503.14738. (Abstract fetched.)
• Fermilab news, DESI completes planned 3D map of the universe..., April 2026. (Fetched.)
• Turyshev, Dark Energy After DESI DR2, arXiv:2602.05368 (2026). (Abstract fetched.)
• Wright et al. (KiDS-Legacy), arXiv:2503.19441; Stölzner et al., arXiv:2503.19442 (2025). (Abstract content via search; A&A publication confirmed.)
• Elbers et al. (DESI), Constraints on Neutrino Physics from DESI DR2 BAO and DR1 Full Shape, arXiv:2503.14744. (Abstract fetched.)
• Cosmological Preference for a Positive Neutrino Mass at 2.7σ, arXiv:2507.16589 (2025). (Listing verified.)
• Pedalino et al., Probing quantum mechanics using nanoparticle Schrödinger cats, arXiv:2507.21211; Nature (Jan 2026, s41586-025-09917-9). (arXiv abstract fetched; Nature listing confirmed.)
• Carlesso et al., Present status and future challenges of non-interferometric tests of collapse models, Nature Physics 18, 243 (2022), arXiv:2203.04231. (Listing verified.)
• LHAASO Collaboration, Stringent Tests of LIV from LHAASO Observations of GRB 221009A, arXiv:2402.06009. (Abstract fetched.)
• Touboul et al. (MICROSCOPE), PRL 129, 121102 (2022), arXiv:2209.15487. (APS/arXiv listings verified.)
• LVK Collaboration, GWTC-4.0 Tests of GR I/II/III, arXiv:2603.19019, 2603.19020, 2603.19021 (2026). (2603.19019 page fetched; findings via arXiv abstract content in search.)
• LVK Collaboration, Black Hole Spectroscopy and Tests of GR with GW250114, PRL (2025), arXiv:2509.08099. (Listings + LIGO Caltech cross-check.)
• LIGO Caltech news, GWTC-5.0 release, 2026-05-26. (Fetched.)
• LIGO/Virgo/EGO, GWTC-4.0 release announcements, 2025-08-26. (Official pages via search.)
• KM3NeT Collaboration, The ultra-high-energy event KM3-230213A within the global neutrino landscape, arXiv:2502.08173 (2025). (Listing verified.)
• Parameter scanning in a QGEM experiment with electromagnetic screening, arXiv:2502.12474 (2025). (Listing verified.)
• NASA/SpacePolicyOnline (Roman launch 2026-08-30); NOIRLab (Rubin LSST start early 2026); Euclid Consortium (Q1 March 2025; DR1 Oct 2026 [reported]). (Official-source content via search.)
• unverified Status of the S8 Tension: A 2026 Review, arXiv:2602.12238 — listing only.
• unverified Donadi et al. 2021 (underground DP exclusion) — carried from wiki, not re-fetched this session.
• unverified arXiv:2604.08351 (lattice NLO HVP, 2026) — listing only.

Binding note. Where a correction in the referee verdict below conflicts with the body above, the referee correction governs; the body is the pre-referee submission, retained for the audit trail per house convention.

Referee verdict

Track: R6-experiment-refresh (Iteration 6). Stance: adversarial per AGENTS.md §4. Every load-bearing citation was independently resolved this session, including all 2026 (post-cutoff) arXiv IDs. All ten findings are kept; one major-but-correctable misattribution (F8), six minors, two clean.

R6-F1 (muon g-2 closed) — KEEP, minor. FNAL final ($116\,592\,070.5(14.8)\times10^{-11}$, 127 ppb), world average, and WP2025 numbers verified to the digit against arXiv:2506.03069 and 2505.21476; the wiki's OP-21 figures stand exactly. Correction: the "$4.6\sigma$ lattice vs pre-CMD-3" figure belongs to the NLO-HVP comparison in arXiv:2604.08351 (Beltran et al., Apr 2026 — real, fetched) vs KNT19, not to a WP2025 LO statement; attribute it there. Anomaly closed at $0.6\sigma$; live question is HVP systematics, not BSM.

R6-F2 (LHCb $B^0\to K^{*0}\mu\mu$ ~4σ) — KEEP, minor. arXiv:2512.18053 resolves (LHCb, 2025-12-19); the $4\sigma$ figure was confirmed only via press coverage of the PRL (DOI 10.1103/24g9-yn9d; APS page returned 403). Enter the $4\sigma$ as [reported] until the published abstract is read directly. The CONTESTED hadronic-vs-NP split is correct. OP-21's "mild tension" wording is indeed stale.

R6-F3 (w(z) window compresses) — KEEP, minor. No DR3 exists; DR2 significances, DESI survey completion (Apr 2026, >47M objects, full 5-yr analysis 2027), Euclid DR1 (2026-10-21), Roman launch (2026-08-30), and LSST start all verified. Overclaim trimmed: "~1–3 yr to the first decisive multi-survey verdict" → the next decision point is ~1 yr out (DESI 2027); a decisive multi-survey confrontation is plausibly 2028–2030 (Roman/LSST need years post-launch). Window: ~1–4 yr.

R6-F4 (H0 persists / S8 eased) — KEEP, minor. KiDS-Legacy $S_8=0.815^{+0.016}_{-0.021}$, $0.73\sigma$ from Planck verified (arXiv:2503.19441/19442). Two corrections: (i) "substantially eased" must be scoped — the finder's own pointer citation (arXiv:2602.12238, real, fetched) reports DES Y6 still in significant tension while KiDS-Legacy is consistent; the easing is survey-dependent, not closed. (ii) The ~5σ H0 persistence and CCHP-70.4 figures are true but mis-sourced to a SciAm article that contains neither; cite primaries or mark [reported].

R6-F5 (Σm_ν vs oscillation floor; new row) — KEEP, minor. DESI numbers verified (arXiv:2503.14744: $<0.0642$ eV, ~3σ negative-mass tension, $<0.163$ eV in $w_0w_a$CDM). Correction: the 2.7σ positive-mass counter-result (arXiv:2507.16589, fetched) is obtained within a dynamical-DE framework with free $N_{\rm eff}$ — stating this strengthens the finding's own entanglement point. New watchlist row approved with the standard does-not-test-the-wager caveat.

R6-F6 (matter-wave record 1.7×10^5 Da) — KEEP, minor. arXiv:2507.21211 and Nature 649, 866–870 (2026) both verified ($>7000$ atoms, $\mu=15.5$, strongest macrorealism exclusion). Quote the authors' own "tenfold improvement" rather than deriving a factor from $\Delta\mu=1.5$. Gap to BMV-decisive masses (~7–8 orders) checks out and is consistent with the existing row. The "no external anchor for ~2035" audit of our own row is correct and should be recorded.

R6-F7 (LIV/EP nulls hardened) — KEEP, minor. LHAASO bounds verified verbatim ($E_{\rm QG,1}>10\,E_{\rm Pl}$; $E_{\rm QG,2}>6\times10^{-8}\,E_{\rm Pl}$, v3 Feb 2026); MICROSCOPE $10^{-15}$ confirmed. Correction: the Eöt-Wash superconductor WEP test (PRD 111, L021101 (2025)) reaches only $\eta\lesssim2\times10^{-9}$ — it is a new composition, not a new sensitivity; do not juxtapose it with the classic $10^{-13}$ limit without saying so.

R6-F8 (GW nulls; new row) — KEEP, major (correctable). GWTC-4.0 TGR papers and GW250114 spectroscopy verified real. The area-law confirmation is misattributed: it lives in the companion arXiv:2509.08054 / PRL 135, 111403 (2025), not in 2509.08099. Also: SNR is 80 (discovery PRL) vs 76.9 (GWTC-5.0 catalog) — cite both; use the abstract's "tens of percent" for the QNM pattern; and the proposed row must frame "GR exact / horizons Kerr" as a null anchor being hardened, not as a pre-existing wiki core (the listed cores are exact linearity and exact Lorentz/causal order). With those fixes, the row is approved.

R6-F9 (no BMV/QGEM roadmap) — KEEP, none. arXiv:2502.12474 (Schut–Mazumdar, 35 μm screened design) verified. The absence claim is properly search-bounded and tagged; OP-40/GC-15 framing (LOCC theorem vs CONTESTED mediation premise) is preserved exactly. Row unchanged.

R6-F10 (anomaly scan; KM3NeT watch item) — KEEP, minor. arXiv:2502.08173 verified, but it quantifies the tension at 2.5–3σ, not 2.5–3.5σ — trim or separately source the upper end. Energy should be quoted as "hundreds of PeV (median ~220 PeV, broad uncertainty)". The "nothing else ≥4σ" exhaustiveness claim is search-bounded and already hedged at medium confidence. Sub-threshold watch-item placement (not a full row) is the right call.

Closure audit. Nothing in this track engages or contradicts Weinberg–Witten, Coleman–Mandula/HLS, Haag, Bell/CHSH, PBR, Kochen–Specker, Reeh–Schlieder, the singularity theorems, spin–statistics, or unitarity/causality bounds — all findings are experimental status updates. The wiki's own closures (dS cardinality no-go / η-is-an-input; HYP-CKV-VACUITY readout-independence; the OP-48c conditional no-go) are untouched: the new results land in the gate/cores/target taxonomy exactly as the watchlist caveat predicts. The track's verdict-bearing paragraph is endorsed: no re-opening of the PARTIAL-coherence verdict; the cores are strengthened by their hardest tests to date, the target hedge (A-20) acquires a dated decision point (DESI full 5-yr, 2027), and the gate remains unprobed.